PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 27, 2011 – Real GDP growth is expected to be 9% for 2010, after the 2009 contraction of -1.9%. Economic activity is increasingly linked to the massive market across the straits in mainland China. While the 'mainland factor' has been the driving force in Taiwan's up-turn, BMI cautions that a likely mainland slowdown in 2011 will cool the pace of growth, with local GDP growth dipping to 1.4%. Total trade in real terms is expected to bounce back in 2010 with 31.9% growth before falling back to 4.1% growth in 2011. Politically, the government remains stable but President Ma Ying-jeou had a tough time in the opinion polls after making an unimpressive response to the Typhoon Morakot emergency and controversy over relations with China. However, Taiwan's 2010 municipal election results in November left the political landscape unchanged, although the vote swung slightly to the DPP. Air freight is expected to have grown 13.7% in 2010 and is projected to recover by only 1.4% in 2011. Maritime freight at the Port of Kaohsiung is expected to grow 7% in 2010 in throughput but this will fallback to 1.9% in 2011. The smaller Port of Keelung is expected to do better with growth of 16.6% in 2010 after contracting 23% in 2009. This port's growth is expected to remain strong over the forecast period with an average 5.1% growth of the medium term. Traditionally, rail freight growth has been limited by the priority given to passenger rail demand, and by the relative unsuitability of this transport mode to the short-haul requirements of the island-based economy. However, the introduction of the bullet train service has freed up some freight rail capacity. After a steep fall in 2009 of 16.8%, BMI see rai android application l freight recovering strongly in 2010, gaining 31.7%. Over the next five years, rail freight growth should average 10.2% per annum. The number of air freight flights increased with CAL adding a flight to mainland china, All Nippon Airways increased its flights to Taiwan from Japan and Cargolux Airlines increased the number of flights from Luxembourg to Taiwan. Taiwan has announced plans to spend TWD60bn (US$1.9bn) to build a third terminal at Taoyuan International Airport. There are now 108 cross-strait direct links by air and sea between China and Taiwan. Yang Ming is set to increase the profile of the country's port of Kaohsiung still higher by developing the facility into its transhipment hub for its Asia-Europe services. COSCO's port investment arm, Cosco Pacific Ltd and China Merchants Group each reportedly proposed to buy a 20% stake in Kaohsiung's container terminal 6, in early November. BMI believes that the main risks to our Taiwan ports and shipping forecasts are on the downside. Two risks to highlight are the danger of a sharper than expected 'double-dip' growth slowdown in mainland China in 2011, on the one hand, and the possibility of a flare-up of poli 2011 Chrysler 200 Convertible tical opposition to President Ma Ying-jeou's policy first drive audi a6 of closer relations with Beijing, which could call a halt to improving trade relations.
For more information or to purchase this report, go
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar